AGP Executive Report

Lebanon-Israel Escalation: Despite a ceasefire, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least two and wounded four in the past 24 hours, with fighting concentrated around Nabatiyeh and areas near Israel’s self-declared security zone. Israel-Lebanon Claims: Netanyahu repeated claims that some Christian villages asked to be annexed for protection from Hezbollah—claims Lebanon’s villages deny. Gaza Strike: An Israeli airstrike in Gaza City killed at least two Palestinians, medics said, as talks on the next phase of the ceasefire remain deadlocked. NATO Summit in Ankara: NATO leaders meet in Turkey amid fault lines over the Iran operation and defense spending, while Ankara is set to showcase drones and air-defense systems to allies and regional buyers. IMEC Push: A former Biden official urged Israel not to miss the India-Middle East-Europe corridor, citing capacity gaps at Haifa port and border bottlenecks with Jordan. Oil & Shipping Watch: With Middle East tensions easing and Hormuz shipping improving, oil prices and regional costs are shifting—prompting calls for lower transport fares in the Philippines. Food Security Deal: Qatar is positioning itself as a reliable food-security partner for Ukrainian grain exporters, betting on stable demand and logistics.

US-Iran Gaza Ceasefire Fallout: Months after a Gaza ceasefire deal was announced, CNN reports families in Gaza say progress is stalled and the “dangerous status quo” is leaving daily life in ruins, with Israel barring independent foreign reporting. NATO Summit Watch: Canada’s PM Mark Carney heads to Ankara for a reduced NATO summit focused on managing US President Trump’s approach, with allies pushing for higher defense spending. Pakistan-Türkiye Deal Push: Turkish and Pakistani leaders reaffirmed a drive to lift trade to $5bn and expand cooperation in energy, mining, IT, manufacturing, logistics, tourism and defense. Khamenei Funeral & Regional Tensions: Iran’s leadership funeral drew major regional participation, while Iran-linked tensions continue to shape diplomacy and security planning across the Middle East. Energy Prices & Local Costs: An MP in the Philippines urged MARINA to roll back shipping fares on the Calapan–Batangas route after Middle East ceasefire-linked oil price drops. Environment in Qatar: Al Meera and QNB launched “Bagging a Better Tomorrow” to cut single-use plastic bags, with incentives for QNB cardholders. Business & Travel: A UAE credit screening service went live, and Air India Express promoted up to 15% off fares on select routes.

Middle East Diplomacy: Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that Israel must not “dynamite” the US-Iran peace deal, saying lasting Middle East peace needs regional backing, while Turkey and Pakistan also pushed deeper cooperation on energy, transport, critical minerals, IT and defense. Gulf Security: Kuwait raised an “alarm” at the UN over repeated Iranian attacks on its territory, airspace and civil facilities, calling them a breach of sovereignty and urging firm Security Council action. Iran Funeral Politics: Iran began week-long ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as crowds in Tehran chanted “death to America” and called for revenge, with officials and mourners framing the event as defiance. Regional Humanitarian Health: Bahrain Red Crescent joined a Jordan workshop to strengthen MENA health coordination, focusing on how national Red Cross/Red Crescent societies can support ministry-led immunization and outbreak readiness. Energy & Trade: Shell forecast LNG demand to surge to nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, while warning importing countries need regasification and pipeline links to benefit from new supply. Food Prices: FAO said global food prices rose 2.2% year-on-year in June, with Middle East conflict and energy costs still weighing on markets.

Middle East Crisis Impact: Kuwait urged the UN Security Council to act firmly after repeated Iranian attacks on its territory, airspace and critical infrastructure, calling them violations of international law and stressing Kuwait won’t allow its land or waters to be used for launches. Regional Security: Iran began six-day funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, with authorities expecting 15–20 million people in the capital and tight security as attention turns to whether his son Mojtaba appears. Energy & Trade: DP World says more cargo is routing through Turkey as firms seek resilient corridors into Gulf markets amid disruptions to traditional shipping lanes. Water Infrastructure: Oman’s Nama Water Services won a 15-year, RO 900m performance-based contract to run water and wastewater services for 2.3m people and cut unaccounted-for water losses in Muscat and Sharqiyah. Health & Policy: Abu Dhabi’s DoH said it signed 22 partnerships to expand intelligent life sciences across genomics, AI and precision medicine, aiming to speed research-to-care translation. Economy & Markets: Gold’s safe-haven appeal is shifting as investors weigh geopolitical risk against strong US rates and the dollar. Education & Community: A UK headteacher defended keeping his school open during a heatwave, arguing school is the safest option for disadvantaged children.

Naval Update: France says the Charles de Gaulle carrier has left the Middle East and returned to Toulon after a US-Iran memorandum, while mine-countermeasure forces stay on standby. Regional Diplomacy: US and Iran talks are shifting to Doha as tensions remain high, with Iran warning against “miscalculation” around the UN Security Council. Gulf Education Impact: The US Navy told Bahrain families they won’t return before the fall semester due to ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Saudi-US Rift: Reports say Saudi Arabia and the US face their deepest strain in years over Iran policy, regional security, and diplomacy priorities. Lebanon Returns: IOM says more than 640,000 displaced Lebanese have returned home as clashes wind down under a ceasefire. Infrastructure & Growth: Oman pushes ahead with Muscat Metro plans, linking Sultan Haitham City and Ruwi with 42 stations. Business & Trade: Pakistan’s commerce ministry warns exports will suffer if incentives favor domestic industries over export sectors, citing Hormuz-linked route disruptions.

Iran Funeral & Regional Tensions: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s sprawling multi-day funeral is set to begin, with Tehran aiming to project strength as the region watches for fallout after months of US-Iran and Israeli strikes. Shipping & Oil: As Strait of Hormuz disruption fears ease, crude prices slide and shipping normalisation is expected to weigh on oil—though UN trade and insurer warnings say the economic hit from past disruptions will linger. Gulf Diplomacy: China urged Gulf states to pursue strategic autonomy and called for a ceasefire and restored navigation through Hormuz, warning against big-power rivalry. NATO Summit in Ankara: NATO leaders meeting July 7-8 will focus on alliance unity and defence output, with officials worried the Middle East conflict could crowd out core priorities. Oman Banking Upgrade: Oman Arab Bank marked a decade with BPC, expanding card modernisation and rolling out Visa tokenization for safer digital payments. Kenya-Saudi Labour Talks: Kenya’s Musalia Mudavadi begins a three-day Saudi visit focused on protecting Kenyan workers and improving labour standards and dispute resolution. UK Services Slowdown: Britain’s services sector contracted again in June, with firms citing Middle East conflict uncertainty and cost pressures. Pakistan Growth Outlook: Pakistan’s central bank expects FY26 growth around 3.75–4.75% despite Middle East crisis drag, with remittances projected to stay strong.

Gaza Reconstruction Debate: A “Hamas-free camps” plan for the Green Zone is being discussed, but implementation inside Gaza remains the big sticking point as key mechanisms are blocked or contested. Iran–Gulf Tensions: Bahrain told the UN Security Council it recorded 808 attacks since late February, warning the strikes hit civilian infrastructure and threaten Gulf security despite a US-brokered understanding. Iran Religious Crackdown: Iran and the IRGC are moving to seize Tehran’s historic St. Peter Evangelical Church, ordering families to leave and using court processes to strip the church’s legal status. Kurdish Conflict in Iran: Kurdish opposition groups say IRGC ambushes in Iran’s west killed Peshmerga fighters, highlighting renewed clashes. Oman Water Infrastructure: Nama Water awarded a RO878mn (about €2bn) 15-year contract to a SUEZ-led consortium to run water and wastewater services for 2.3mn people. Pakistan Exports Miss: Pakistan missed its export target by $5.2bn, with receipts falling to $30.1bn in FY2025-26, widening the trade deficit. Pakistan–China Energy Talks: Shandong Xinxu proposed refinery upgrades, offshore exploration, and an energy equipment manufacturing push for exports to the Middle East. Bahrain–Iran Security: The Bahrain case also cited drone strikes affecting the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant and attacks on Kuwait’s airport.

Qatar Banking & Cards: Dukhan Bank won MEED’s “Best Business Card Offering in MENA 2026,” highlighting Sharia-compliant, digital-first corporate and SME card services. Qatar Finance Hub: Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) approved Franklin Templeton to set up Franklin Templeton Investments QFC LLC, deepening Doha’s push to attract global asset managers. UAE Real Estate: UAE’s central bank said Q1 2026 saw strong property activity in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, with off-plan sales leading gains. Saudi Housing Deal: Retal signed agreements worth SAR 123.83m to build 163 homes in Makkah with ROSHN, with impact expected across 2027-2029. Dubai Construction Milestone: DAMAC topped out Harbour Lights, a 52-storey waterfront tower in Dubai Maritime City, targeting completion in Q2 2027. Iraq Port Work: Iraq plans to invite bids for remaining piers at the Grand Faw Port, after Daewoo E&C completed five main jetties. Healthcare Infrastructure: Abu Dhabi Biobank and Bascom Palmer Eye Institute will establish the Middle East’s first eye bank in Abu Dhabi to expand corneal transplant capacity. Energy & Trade: Shell forecast LNG demand to rise 65% by 2050, while LNG supply disruptions linked to Hormuz strain remain a key risk. Aviation: EgyptAir launched direct Cairo–Chicago flights, adding another US destination to its 2026 network.

WTA Finals Move: The WTA says this year’s season-ending Finals will leave Riyadh and head to Indian Wells, ending Saudi Arabia’s hosting deal early. US-Iran Tensions: Trump is reportedly weighing options for a return to war as US-Iran talks continue in Doha, with Iran warning of a “powerful response” to threats. Israel-Lebanon Posture: Israel’s defense minister says troops will stay in “security zones” in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza indefinitely, with no withdrawal timeline. UK Settlement Goods Pressure: Britain is discussing coordinated restrictions on goods from Israeli West Bank settlements, citing escalating international pressure. Humanitarian Aid: Bulgaria approved €200,000 in emergency aid for Lebanon and Gaza, routed through UN and Red Cross partners. Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraqi forces arrested politicians and senior officials in Baghdad’s Green Zone in a high-profile anti-corruption operation. Cyber Risk in Pakistan: Pakistan recorded 253 cyberattacks in 2026 so far, with officials warning of rising threats after US-Iran deal fallout. Renewables Shift: A new report argues the Iran war push away from fossil fuels is strengthening China’s grip on global renewable supply chains. Saudi Telecom in Syria: Zain won a 25-year licence to run Syria’s mobile network, pledging over $800m investment including 5G. OFW Social Security: The Philippines’ SSS partnered with an OFW leaders network in Saudi Arabia to expand social protection coverage.

Iraq’s Infrastructure Push: Iraq plans to open a Central Bank-backed Energy and Development Fund to Gulf and Western investors, aiming to finance strategic infrastructure, electricity and energy projects. Telecom & Data Gateway: Iraq also unveiled telecom upgrades at the Iraq Telecom Summit, including expanding fiber-optic coverage and cross-border internet transit capacity via a Qatar-linked deal. Jordan Jobs Boost: The World Bank approved a $700m loan for Jordan’s Growth and Competitiveness program to unlock private investment, expand access to finance, and speed up green and digital transition. Kuwait Defense Posture: Kuwait’s cabinet condemned renewed Iranian military aggressions, raising armed forces readiness and freezing unapproved state consulting contracts. Saudi Grid Storage: Saudi Arabia qualified firms for the second round of 12GWh battery storage projects, preselecting 27 companies for six utility-scale sites. Regional Finance Governance: Region Trade Bank in Qatar appointed a new board of international experts to strengthen financial integrity, sanctions policy and payment systems as Iraq’s banking links grow. Education in Dubai: Canada’s North Land Institute of Training launched in Dubai to deliver Canadian higher education programs locally under Dubai’s regulatory framework. Public Transport Costs: Sri Lanka’s cabinet approved a bus fare revision tied to recent fuel price changes, with a committee set to update the fare formula. Tourism & Hospitality: Ascott will open Ascott Villas Riyadh in Q4 2026, adding an 86-villa extended-stay community in Riyadh’s Hittin district.

US-Iran Talks in Doha: Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are in Qatar for mediator-led meetings, but officials say there are still no direct high-level US-Iran talks scheduled—only technical discussions continue, with the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues and regional developments on the agenda. Hormuz Fallout: The Strait’s reopening is easing shipping and energy stress, but UNCTAD warns vulnerable economies will feel the damage longer through higher oil, fertilizer and transport costs. Israel-Lebanon Security: Netanyahu says Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until threats from Iran and Hezbollah are removed, while Israel reviews Hezbollah’s tunnel threat and looks to cut reliance on US ammunition. Regional Tech & Telecom: Zain won a 25-year Syria mobile network license in a $747m deal, targeting commercial launch in Q1 2027; Turksat and Es’hailSat signed a partnership for the Es’hail-3/Turksat-Biruni satellite. Gulf Business & Cyber: Qatar faces more automated, AI-driven cyber threats over the next five years, with critical infrastructure and visibility gaps highlighted. Aviation Demand: IATA says global air passenger demand fell 2.2% in May 2026, with the Middle East down sharply due to West Asia conflict.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The US and Iran have paused direct strikes and are set for follow-up talks in Doha, but analysts warn the fight over Hormuz control is still unresolved, keeping shipping risk in focus. Logistics & Trade: DP World and Arcapita’s Lintara broke ground on a 20,000 sqm Grade A build-to-suit logistics centre in Jafza, targeting completion in Q1 2027. AI Infrastructure in Saudi: Magna AI and Emaar Executive Company signed a framework to plan and deliver sovereign AI data centres across Saudi Arabia, with potential expansion across MENA. Healthcare & Business: QNB will sponsor APLMA’s 2026 conference in Singapore, focusing on the Asia–Middle East lending corridor. Hospitality Development: Accor and Margins Developments launched Novotel & Novotel Residences New Cairo Lusail, a 266,000 sqm mixed-use project. Regional Culture: Doha Film Institute backed 48 projects from 39 countries in its Spring 2026 grants. Energy & Consumer Pressure: Sainsbury’s urged the UK’s next PM to cut energy levies as Middle East conflict continues to weigh on shoppers and food firms.

US-Iran Talks in Qatar: Trump says a fresh meeting is set for Tuesday in Doha after weekend clashes, but Iran’s side is signaling uncertainty on the format and whether technical talks are scheduled. Lebanon Sovereignty Push: President Joseph Aoun met U.S. Central Command chief Brad Cooper to prepare implementation of a Lebanon-U.S.-Israel framework aimed at restoring Lebanon’s authority and disarming Hezbollah. Syria Flashpoints: Violence flared again in southern Syria after Israel killed two men near the Golan security zone, as Iraq and Syria also agreed to coordinate on energy, water, transport and border crossings. Energy & Trade Shock: Germany pledged €250m to help Africa and Asia cope with Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while IATA reported global air cargo demand rose 6.0% in May—though Middle East carriers saw an 8.9% contraction tied to war impacts. Counter-Terror Warning: UN chief Guterres warned Al-Qaeda and ISIS are expanding in Africa and the Middle East amid instability, displacement and economic strain. Saudi Hospitality Growth: IHG plans to bring all six Luxury & Lifestyle brands to Saudi Arabia by 2028, as Minor Hotels signed NH Riyadh Prime Square for a 2030 opening.

Middle East Ceasefire Watch: The US and Iran agreed to stop mutual strikes ahead of talks in Doha, with ships expected to move freely while disputes over the Strait of Hormuz are worked through. Strait of Hormuz: Oil prices edged up after renewed US-Iran exchanges, underscoring how fast shipping and energy flows can wobble. Israel-Lebanon Diplomacy: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework in Washington, setting up pilot security zones for the Lebanese army while Hezbollah’s role becomes the deal’s biggest test. Qatar’s Role: Qatar’s leadership is again drawing fire for its approach to regional tensions, with critics saying Doha is no longer acting as a neutral mediator. UAE Community Health: Dubai’s Galaxy Run Club launched at Dubai Marina, aiming to get families and first-time runners moving with routes for different fitness levels. Qatar Infrastructure: Ashghal is expected to award the Wadi Al-Banat roads and infrastructure project in Q3 2026. Pakistan Media: Geo News lost a 15-day licence after Muharram-related content was ruled offensive. Business & Markets: UK mortgage approvals fell to a two-and-a-half-year low as Middle East-driven borrowing costs hit demand.

US-Iran Gulf Flashpoint: The US hit multiple Iranian targets again after Iran struck US-linked sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, as both sides trade accusations of ceasefire breaches and warn over Strait of Hormuz access; Reuters reports Iran and the US agreed to halt hostilities and renew talks, with a meeting planned in Qatar. Saudi Energy Tragedy: Saudi Aramco says a helicopter crash near Ras Tanura killed 14 people; an investigation is underway and authorities say there’s no sign of hostile attack. Diplomacy in Baghdad: Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran is coordinating with Iraq on a security and administrative plan for state funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei across Iraqi Shia shrines, amid fragile US-Iran truce talks. Pakistan Oil Move: Pakistan is considering buying cheaper Iranian oil and gas after a temporary easing of US sanctions, aiming to cut import costs. Bahrain Auto Brand Push: JMC’s Bahrain distributor hosted a senior HQ delegation to boost after-sales readiness and spare parts support. Egypt Beauty Boom: Egypt’s cosmetics market topped $900m in 2025, with growth driven by younger consumers and social media. Kuwait Refugee Support: UNHCR and Zain marked World Refugee Day with a decade-long partnership delivering cash aid to thousands across MENA.

Gulf Flashpoint: Iran and the US traded fresh strikes after a cargo-ship attack near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran hitting US sites in Kuwait and Bahrain and Washington saying it targeted missile/drone and radar infrastructure—while both sides accuse the other of violating the interim ceasefire. Lebanon Fallout: Hezbollah leader Hassan Fadlallah warned Lebanon faces “internal conflict” over the Israel framework deal, as Israel and Hezbollah continue clashing amid fears the wider US-Iran track could derail. Kuwait/Bahrain Response: Kuwait and Bahrain condemned the renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks, urging UN action and warning of threats to Gulf security. Saudi Real Estate: Jabal Omar plans to sell 400 hotel residential units after Saudi eases foreign property ownership rules in designated areas. Iraq Infrastructure Push: Iraq is discussing a proposed $400bn energy and development fund with the US to finance power and infrastructure projects. Markets & Business: Boursa Kuwait prepares to launch its Emerging Companies Market for SME listings; Abu Dhabi eyes commercial air taxi services by end-2026/early-2027. Energy Outlook: Rystad says Middle East oil supply could fully recover by end-2026, supporting UAE export capacity.