AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran says it’s close to a deal with Oman on new shipping lanes, while the U.S. keeps economic pressure as Trump admits he’s “low-keying” Iran talks and denies direct talks—markets are watching for any reopening signals. Regional Security Pacts: Iran’s foreign ministry calls the Türkiye-Saudi-Pakistan Makkah Joint Defence Agreement a “fundamental shift,” while Pakistan’s Dar insists it’s defensive and not aimed at any country. U.S. Military Readiness: The Pentagon is pushing defense firms to speed up missile and munitions production after concerns over depleted stocks tied to the Iran conflict. Oil & Inflation Watch: Oil prices hover near $87 a barrel as Hormuz uncertainty feeds into inflation fears and rate expectations. Business & Finance: Bank of Commerce reports 13% profit growth in H1 on core lending; Korea’s KDI flags Mideast risks as it notes chip-led improvement. Energy Infrastructure: ASCO warns Middle East decommissioning needs more than contractors—quayside capacity, rules, skills, and waste routes matter. Local Life: Qatar Airways launches ultra-short A350 flights (80 miles) and Saudi opens new indoor playground options as families plan weekend trips.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The US Navy says it redirected 55 commercial vessels to enforce a blockade on Iran, while Iran keeps raising conditions for reopening the Strait—keeping oil and LNG prices jumpy. Israel-West Bank Security: Israel’s military closed the Christian village of Taybeh to non-residents, citing settler attacks, as the West Bank remains tense. Iran Leadership Update: Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian met supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, amid fresh speculation about the leader’s health and the state of US-Iran talks. Defense & Regional Pacts: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s “Mecca” defense pact continues to reshape regional security debates, with officials stressing it is defensive and not aimed at any country. Energy Markets: Oil slides for the week after hopes of a Hormuz deal faded, while shipping firms report war-risk premiums and route disruptions. Tourism & Growth: Saudi tourism remains a standout, with WTTC saying the sector is 14.1% of GDP and the region is set for long-term travel growth. Business/Investing: Kuwait gold prices jumped to $4,342/oz as weak US labor data and Middle East uncertainty boosted demand.

Energy & Trade: Cyprus says the Cronos gas field could start supplying Europe by March 2028, with pipeline work to Egypt’s Zohr infrastructure beginning later this year. Regional Security: Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar says the new Makkah Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye is “purely defensive,” open to any regional country, and not aimed at any state. Shipping Under Strain: UAE condemns a missile strike on an ADNOC-affiliated tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran presses fresh conditions for reopening the strait and the U.S. seeks a “safe” shipping route. Conflict Developments: AFP reports Israeli troops infiltrated a Lebanese army-held village near Zawtar al-Gharbiyah, erecting a new barrier. Local Economy: Jordan reports 3.15 million visitors and JD 2.47bn tourism revenue in the first half of 2026, with upgrades to key sites and routes underway. Health & Education: Qatar’s Hamad Medical Corporation announces the Qatar Health Congress 2026 (Nov 11–14) focused on integrated, innovative surgical care.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council says the waterway won’t reopen unless the U.S. ends threats, lifts sanctions and blockade, withdraws forces, pays damages, and releases Iranian assets—while Iran and Oman discuss a temporary route. US Blockade Update: CENTCOM says it redirected 53 commercial vessels and disabled/boarded two each as part of the blockade against Iran, allowing over 30 ships for humanitarian aid. Regional Security Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed a NATO-style mutual defense deal in Makkah, aiming to deter aggression and reshape deterrence as the Iran war drags on. Lebanon Front: Israeli troops infiltrated a Lebanese army-held village and built a roadblock/barrier, as Beirut awaits a U.S. envoy on ceasefire talks. Yemen Escalation: Yemen’s government forces hit Houthi positions across multiple axes after renewed shelling of Marib, raising fears of wider conflict. Jordan Tourism Boost: Jordan welcomed 3.15m visitors in H1 2026, with tourism revenue near JD2.47b. Health & Food Safety: USDA recalled 5,084 pounds of frozen breaded swai fish from the UAE due to export eligibility rules.

Hormuz Pressure & Oil Prices: Iran is betting the Strait of Hormuz will force the US into a deal, while renewed hopes of diplomacy helped ease crude risk premiums and could mean fuel price rollbacks next week in the Philippines. Collective Defense Shockwave: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, with the OIC calling it an “important strategic step” and Iran dismissing it as a “paper” pact that won’t deliver lasting security. Shipping Squeeze: Hundreds of ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf as crews report unpaid wages and shortages amid the war over Hormuz. US Iran War Off-Ramp: CNN reports top US Gen. Dan Caine is privately pushing for an off-ramp as military options narrow and airpower alone may not achieve goals. Local Economy Hit: The Middle East conflict is weighing on growth and lending—Philippines Q2 GDP slowed to 2.3% and MSME bank lending stayed far below required targets. Aid & Heritage: Cyprus pledged €150,000 to restore a historic Gaza church damaged in 2023 strikes.

Mecca Defense Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed a trilateral “attack on one, attack on all” defense agreement in Mecca, as Iran-war fallout and Houthi threats raise pressure on Gulf security and energy routes. Gaza Child Deaths: UNICEF says at least 300 Palestinian children have been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire began, calling the deal a failure for children. Strait of Hormuz Watch: Oil markets stayed jumpy as Iran and Oman talks on reopening parts of the Strait of Hormuz face uncertainty, with any limits on US/Israeli vessels adding supply risk. UN Aid Data Scrutiny: WFP plans to extend its Palantir contract despite concerns raised in a leaked audit, after a prior cyberattack exposed sensitive beneficiary data. Syria Finance Rebuild: The World Bank approved a $100m grant to modernize Syria’s finance sector, aiming for safer, faster, more transparent transactions. Regional Ripple Effects: The Middle East conflict is also hitting economies and costs, including fuel price expectations and slower growth in parts of the region.

Gaza Humanitarian Crisis: UNICEF says at least 300 children have been killed in Gaza since the ceasefire began last October, with families now confined to about a third of the Strip amid destroyed areas, malnutrition, disease, and unsafe water. Regional Security: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a mutual defense deal, treating attacks on one as attacks on all, as Iran-linked tensions and Houthi strikes intensify across the region. Shipping & Trade Routes: The Middle Corridor is gaining momentum as firms look for alternatives to Russia and disrupted sea lanes, while KLN launched a Europe-to-Middle East road feeder service aimed at faster, door-to-door deliveries. Energy & Prices: Easing Middle East tensions are expected to bring fuel rollbacks in the Philippines, with diesel and gasoline cuts of about P5 per liter. Food & Agriculture: FAO is urging $38.3m for Afghanistan’s 2027 wheat harvest as fertilizer prices rise, threatening yields and household food security. Local Development: Envalior opened an EV Technology Centre of Excellence in Pune to train about 250 students annually for EV service, safety and diagnostics.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran says an Oman deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is in the “final stage,” with the U.S. still expected to lift its blockade—while shipping groups warn that any tolls or transit fees could set a dangerous precedent for global trade. Regional Security: Trump said the Iran conflict will end “pretty soon” and voiced optimism on Hormuz talks, as Iran vowed a “crushing response” to threats. Yemen Conflict: Houthis launched a large-scale attack on Saudi-aligned forces in Yemen, adding to wider Mideast tension. Kuwait Renewables: Souq Sharq in Kuwait is set for an 8.77-MW solar project under a 15-year build-operate-transfer plan, aiming to cut emissions and boost private-sector clean power. Qatar Tech & AI: Ooredoo is investing about $800m in an AI compute platform (Zankore) to target 1 GW of NVIDIA capacity. Business Sentiment: Cyprus construction shows strong momentum but analysts warn Middle East escalation could cloud the outlook. Local Economy (Philippines, global spillover): Philippine unemployment edged up as fresh graduates entered the labor market, while investors stayed cautious amid Middle East uncertainty.

Lebanon-Israel Escalation: Lebanese state media says fresh Israeli strikes hit Tyre district, with airstrikes and artillery shelling reported around Burj al-Shamali and Mansouri, as talks continue amid renewed border violence. Kuwait-Iran Education Fallout: Kuwait ordered the closure of the only Iranian school in the country, suspending new admissions for the coming academic year after repeated Iranian attacks during the Middle East war. Gaza Humanitarian Toll: UNICEF warns that a ceasefire has failed children in Gaza, citing at least 300 child deaths in 300 days and urging violence to stop, aid to scale up, and hospitals and water systems to reopen. Hormuz Shipping Talks: Iran says it’s close to a new arrangement with Oman for managing Strait of Hormuz traffic, but not a full reopening, while markets watch for supply-risk signals. Energy & Trade Pressure: Iraq’s PM visit delay to Jordan is linked to internal politics and regional pressures, with liquidity strains blamed on Strait of Hormuz disruptions and reduced oil exports. Business/Logistics: CMA CGM says it has completed its acquisition of Lebanon’s Fattal Group, expanding integrated logistics across MENA. Regional Economy: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz heads to Saudi Arabia for talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, focusing on bilateral ties and regional developments.

Middle East Security & Shipping: UN says Israeli operations in Gaza are disrupting civilian life, damaging shelters and restricting access to aid, as humanitarians call for faster entry of supplies. Regional Energy Watch: Markets are tracking Strait of Hormuz talks and Red Sea shipping risk after Yemen-aligned Houthis hit a Saudi oil tanker, keeping investors on edge. Kuwait Healthcare: Kuwait launched a Mayo Clinic training platform for healthcare professionals, aiming to bring in international best practices from Aug. 18. Kuwait Business Leadership: KPC CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Nasser Al-Sabah was named Kuwait’s top chief executive and 4th in MENA by Forbes. Qatar Education & AI Investment: QDB invested in Multiverse Computing to set up Doha as a regional HQ, while Qatar Foundation’s Academic Bridge Programme will host Harvard Model Congress Middle East 2027 in January. Dubai Trade Infrastructure: SUMEA opened a nearly 12,000 sqm global trade hub in JAFZA to consolidate sourcing, warehousing and re-exporting across 75+ countries.

Lebanon Returns Home: UN says 821,077 people have started returning to areas of origin since late July, with 360,000 still displaced amid a lull in Israel-Hezbollah fighting and US-sponsored talks in Rome running until Thursday. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iran-linked disruptions continue to strand sailors and raise risks for regional shipping, while markets watch for any deal that could reopen the waterway. Energy & Trade Fallout: DHL warns geopolitical uncertainty is driving higher fuel, insurance and rerouting costs; separately, Fugro won a deepwater ROV contract for India offshore work. Security & Policy: Turkey’s AK Party submitted a draft bill to advance its “terror-free Türkiye” process aimed at dissolving the PKK through reintegration and legal processing. Business Moves: Abu Dhabi pushes hydrogen plans as the hydrogen economy heats up; Cathay Pacific reports a 71% profit jump in the first half as Middle East disruptions shift passenger flows. Health Warning: Iraq’s Euphrates River crisis is reviving end-times talk as drought, pollution and disease fears grow.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran and Oman say they’ve made progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with ships entering via an Iranian-controlled route and exiting through Oman, plus service fees—any final pact is still being negotiated and could be linked to lifting the US blockade on Iran’s ports. Markets & Energy: Oil slid more than 5% to a three-week low as hopes for de-escalation eased the risk premium; Brent settled around $79.36 and US stocks hit fresh records as profits kept rolling in. Gaza Deadlock: Israel’s Netanyahu said there will be no withdrawal until Hamas is completely disarmed, casting doubt on a US-backed disarmament plan. UAE Economy: UAE non-oil GDP grew 4.8% in Q1, with finance and insurance the fastest-growing sector. Qatar Community Support: QNB Group partnered with Qatar’s Autism Parents Platform for a year of inclusion-focused initiatives, including a named space at The Pearl. Cybersecurity: A report says Bahrain saw fewer DDoS incidents in Q2, but MENA attacks overall surged year-on-year, driven mainly by politically motivated hacktivists. Business Appointments: Ocorian named a new Middle East commercial director for private clients, based in Dubai.

Strait of Hormuz Talks: The U.S. says negotiations with Iran are underway to reopen Hormuz, but Tehran denies talks and says only discussions with Oman are happening—while a fresh shipping threat keeps energy markets on edge. Oil & Profits Backlash: BP reported a big Q2 jump on Middle East-driven price swings, and Trump renewed pressure on ExxonMobil and Chevron to cut fuel costs. Gulf Energy Projects: Egypt’s EETC signed a PPA for a 407MW wind project, Jordan approved a 25MW wind deal funded by the UAE, and ADNOC rolled out AI across 120+ rigs. Banking & Payments: Qatar’s Dukhan Bank went live on J.P. Morgan’s Kinexys blockchain payments network for faster cross-border settlement. Solar Push in the Gulf: Hoymiles expanded its partnership with Saudi distributor QSSUN to scale solar and storage across Kuwait and the region, including microgrids. Evacuation Planning: Malaysia says it is tracking 21,427 citizens across 14 conflict countries and has contingency plans for evacuation if security worsens. Business & Safety: IBM says average data breach cost in the Middle East hit $8m in 2026, as cyber threats rise.

Middle East De-escalation & Oil: Iran-Hormuz talks are said to be progressing after Trump called off strikes, easing crude prices and lifting global stocks, while OPEC+ approved an output quota increase of about 188,000 bpd that may not quickly translate into more supply as the Strait of Hormuz remains risky. Gaza Ceasefire Talks: A Board of Peace envoy met Netanyahu on a Gaza disarmament deal with Hamas, pressing for a halt to Israeli strikes as the second phase of the ceasefire is discussed. Qatar Digital Services: Qatar Tourism says its Hayya platform won a Stevie Award for government tech innovation, highlighting AI-enabled e-visa processing and identity checks. Pakistan Manufacturing: HBL Pakistan Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in July, driven by improving domestic demand and easing cost pressures despite Middle East-linked risks. Cyber & Identity Safety: Gen launched the Fearless Planet Index, a continuously updated cyber safety hub aimed at helping people track scams and identity risks by country. Sudan Violence: A drone strike hit Sudan’s customary court in North Darfur, killing at least 35 people, according to rights monitors.

Iran-US diplomacy and oil markets: Trump said fresh talks with Iran will begin Monday after canceling a planned strike, aiming to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Iran denies US talks but says it’s discussing a temporary navigation route with Oman, while oil prices slid on de-escalation hopes. Yemen-Red Sea escalation: After months on the sidelines, Yemen’s Houthis reopened fighting with Saudi Arabia, targeting Saudi oil and announcing a Red Sea blockade, prompting Saudi to form a defense coalition to protect shipping. Gaza and regional condemnation: Türkiye condemned Israel’s Gaza attacks after at least 19 Palestinians were killed in 24 hours, warning Netanyahu is undermining peace efforts. Business and jobs pressure: The World Bank cut Philippines growth forecasts, citing Middle East-driven oil price shocks; in South Africa, manufacturing PMI signals mixed conditions as domestic demand improves. Tech and finance: Qatar Tourism’s Hayya platform won a Stevie award for government tech innovation; Pakistan’s Abhi plans an IPO for its microfinance bank, and Indonesia says its financial system stayed resilient despite Middle East-linked volatility.

US-Iran Tensions, Hormuz Deal Talks: Trump said he called off a “massive attack” on Iran after allies urged him to pursue a deal, with claims that it hinges on the “immediate, complete and total opening” of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat; Iran’s media rejected the idea Tehran asked for a pause, saying Trump’s claims are “a new lie.” Maritime Pressure: CENTCOM said it redirected 35 commercial vessels and disabled/boarded tankers amid a resumed Iran blockade, while shipbrokers flag new routes and pipeline workarounds as Hormuz remains risky. Oil & Markets: Oil slid after the strike pause reports, while OPEC+ agreed to raise September production by 188,000 bpd despite ongoing disruptions and Hormuz constraints. Gaza Developments: Israeli strikes in Gaza killed at least 15–17 Palestinians as a US-backed ceasefire/disarmament draft faced rejection from Israel’s National Security Minister Ben-Gvir; Palestinian Islamic Jihad reportedly shifted toward accepting the Gaza disarmament framework. Diplomacy in the Gulf: Saudi and Iran foreign ministers discussed de-escalation by phone, as Gulf states warn retaliation risks to energy infrastructure. Local Impact: Egypt executed a convicted killer of a Coptic Orthodox priest, closing a case that began in 2022.